Mauritius vs Sri Lanka Statistics & Analysis

Mauritius

Oct 05, 2026 - 15:00

2 1.33

3 1.27

xG Accuracy: 52%

Sri Lanka

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Mauritius Sri Lanka ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11671215

Closing Odds 1.88

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Sri Lanka win · Mauritius 2–3 Sri Lanka

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Sri Lanka (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Sri Lanka (1X2) by about 9.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Mauritius (1X2)	36.6	49.6	-13.0
Draw (1X2)	29.6	25.9	+3.8
Sri Lanka (1X2)	33.8	24.5	+9.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.8% on Sri Lanka (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 24.5%. The difference — about 9.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE5 · Book: bet at home

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE20)	Closing (PRE5)
Mauritius (1X2)	1.88	1.88
Draw (1X2)	3.6	3.6
Sri Lanka (1X2)	3.8	3.8

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Friendlies
Fixture: Mauritius vs Sri Lanka
Kickoff: 2026-10-05 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
xG (showing): Mauritius 1.33 — Sri Lanka 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 49.0% · Probability edge: +2.8 pts · Est. EV: +4.1%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 05, 2026 (UTC)

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