Chengdu Rongcheng II vs Qingdao Red Lions Statistics & Analysis

Chengdu Rongcheng II

Oct 13, 2026 - 11:35

1 1.39

1 1.21

xG Accuracy: 85%

Qingdao Red Lions

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Chengdu Rongcheng II Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 07, 2026 · 01:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13655691

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Chengdu Rongcheng II 1–1 Qingdao Red Lions

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: League Two
Fixture: Chengdu Rongcheng II vs Qingdao Red Lions
Kickoff: 2026-10-13 11:35:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
xG (showing): Chengdu Rongcheng II 1.39 — Qingdao Red Lions 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 48.2% · Implied: 39.4% · Probability edge: +8.8 pts · Est. EV: +14.7%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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