Chengdu Rongcheng II vs Tai'an Tiankuang Statistics & Analysis

Chengdu Rongcheng II

Sep 19, 2026 - 11:35

1 1.40

1 1.20

xG Accuracy: 85%

Tai'an Tiankuang

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Chengdu Rongcheng II Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8662649

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Chengdu Rongcheng II 1–1 Tai'an Tiankuang

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: League Two
Fixture: Chengdu Rongcheng II vs Tai'an Tiankuang
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 11:35:00
1X2 (model): Home 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 30.6%
xG (showing): Chengdu Rongcheng II 1.4 — Tai'an Tiankuang 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 48.2% · Implied: 36.5% · Probability edge: +11.7 pts · Est. EV: +23.4%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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