Yichun Grand Tiger vs Dalian Yingbo B Statistics & Analysis

Yichun Grand Tiger

Sep 13, 2026 - 11:30

1 1.26

0 1.34

xG Accuracy: 64%

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Dalian Yingbo B

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Dalian Yingbo B Yichun Grand Tiger ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7427938

Closing Odds 3.19

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Yichun Grand Tiger win · Yichun Grand Tiger 1–0 Dalian Yingbo B

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Dalian Yingbo B (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 15.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Yichun Grand Tiger (1X2)	33.4	38.5	-5.2
Draw (1X2)	29.6	33.1	-3.5
Dalian Yingbo B (1X2)	37.0	28.4	+8.7
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	32.3	+15.9
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	67.7	-15.9

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 32.3%. The difference — about 15.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Yichun Grand Tiger (1X2)	2.35	2.35
Draw (1X2)	2.74	2.74
Dalian Yingbo B (1X2)	3.19	3.19
Over 2.5 goals	2.85	2.85
Under 2.5 goals	1.36	1.36

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: League Two
Fixture: Yichun Grand Tiger vs Dalian Yingbo B
Kickoff: 2026-09-13 11:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
xG (showing): Yichun Grand Tiger 1.26 — Dalian Yingbo B 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 48.2% · Implied: 33.1% · Probability edge: +15.1 pts · Est. EV: +39.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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