Statistics / Football / World. UEFA Europa Cup - Women / Torreense W vs Metalist 1925 W

Torreense W vs Metalist 1925 W Statistics & Analysis

Torreense W Torreense W
Sep 30, 2026 - 19:00
4 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 44%
Metalist 1925 W Metalist 1925 W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Torreense W Torreense W ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 24, 2026 · 01:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10585864

Closing Odds 1.57
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Torreense W win · Torreense W 4–1 Metalist 1925 W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 16.57 percentage points on Torreense W (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Metalist 1925 W (1X2) by about 14.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Torreense W (1X2) 36.1 55.9 -19.8
Draw (1X2) 29.7 23.9 +5.8
Metalist 1925 W (1X2) 34.2 20.2 +14.1
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 57.2 -9.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 42.8 +9.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on Metalist 1925 W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 20.2%. The difference — about 14.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Torreense W (1X2) 1.22 1.57 -16.6
Draw (1X2) 5.3 3.67 +7.2
Metalist 1925 W (1X2) 8.16 4.35 +9.3
Over 2.5 goals 1.46 1.6 -5.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.41 2.14 +5.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: UEFA Europa Cup - Women
  • Fixture: Torreense W vs Metalist 1925 W
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-30 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Torreense W 1.32 — Metalist 1925 W 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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