Real Sociedad W vs Hearts W Statistics & Analysis

Real Sociedad W

Sep 30, 2026 - 17:00

4 1.32

0 1.28

xG Accuracy: 34%

Hearts W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Real Sociedad W Real Sociedad W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 24, 2026 · 01:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10585738

Closing Odds 1.09

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Real Sociedad W win · Real Sociedad W 4–0 Hearts W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Hearts W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Hearts W (1X2) by about 27.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Real Sociedad W (1X2)	36.1	81.6	-45.5
Draw (1X2)	29.7	11.7	+17.9
Hearts W (1X2)	34.2	6.7	+27.6
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	67.6	-19.4
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	32.4	+19.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on Hearts W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 6.7%. The difference — about 27.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Real Sociedad W (1X2)	1.09	1.09
Draw (1X2)	7.59	7.59
Hearts W (1X2)	13.36	13.36
Over 2.5 goals	1.34	1.34
Under 2.5 goals	2.8	2.8

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Real Sociedad W; market prices Real Sociedad W instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Real Sociedad W 1.32 xG vs Hearts W 1.28 → Real Sociedad W 36.1%
Market: Real Sociedad W ~81.6% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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