St. Pölten W vs Malmö FF W Statistics & Analysis

St. Pölten W

Sep 23, 2026 - 16:45

0 1.32

2 1.28

xG Accuracy: 57%

Malmö FF W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 St. Pölten W Malmö FF W ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 17, 2026 · 01:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9165748

Closing Odds 1.93

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Malmö FF W win · St. Pölten W 0–2 Malmö FF W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices St. Pölten W (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 8.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
St. Pölten W (1X2)	36.1	28.2	+7.9
Draw (1X2)	29.7	25.7	+4.0
Malmö FF W (1X2)	34.2	46.1	-11.8
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	56.7	-8.5
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	43.3	+8.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 43.3%. The difference — about 8.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
St. Pölten W (1X2)	3.15	3.15
Draw (1X2)	3.46	3.46
Malmö FF W (1X2)	1.93	1.93
Over 2.5 goals	1.62	1.62
Under 2.5 goals	2.12	2.12

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: UEFA Europa Cup - Women
Fixture: St. Pölten W vs Malmö FF W
Kickoff: 2026-09-23 16:45:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): St. Pölten W 1.32 — Malmö FF W 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 42.3% · Probability edge: +9.5 pts · Est. EV: +16.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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