Sporting Ben Arous vs EM Mahdia Statistics & Analysis

Sporting Ben Arous

Sep 26, 2026 - 14:00

1 1.37

2 1.23

xG Accuracy: 73%

EM Mahdia

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Sporting Ben Arous EM Mahdia ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8696578

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result EM Mahdia win · Sporting Ben Arous 1–2 EM Mahdia

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Ligue 2
Fixture: Sporting Ben Arous vs EM Mahdia
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 14:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
xG (showing): Sporting Ben Arous 1.37 — EM Mahdia 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.4% · Implied: 38.3% · Probability edge: +16.1 pts · Est. EV: +30.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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