EGS Gafsa vs AS Kasserine Statistics & Analysis

EGS Gafsa

Sep 27, 2026 - 14:00

1 1.22

2 1.38

xG Accuracy: 79%

AS Kasserine

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 AS Kasserine AS Kasserine ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8696362

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result AS Kasserine win · EGS Gafsa 1–2 AS Kasserine

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Ligue 2
Fixture: EGS Gafsa vs AS Kasserine
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 14:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
xG (showing): EGS Gafsa 1.22 — AS Kasserine 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 48.2% · Implied: 38.5% · Probability edge: +9.7 pts · Est. EV: +17.1%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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