Statistics / Football / World. UEFA Champions League Women / Real Madrid W vs Paris Saint Germain W

Real Madrid W vs Paris Saint Germain W Statistics & Analysis

Real Madrid W Real Madrid W
Sep 22, 2026 - 19:00
1 1.49
1 1.11
xG Accuracy: 85%
Paris Saint Germain W Paris Saint Germain W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Real Madrid W Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 16, 2026 · 02:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8993331

Closing Odds 1.58
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Real Madrid W 1–1 Paris Saint Germain W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Paris Saint Germain W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 17.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Real Madrid W (1X2) 44.3 58.0 -13.7
Draw (1X2) 29.0 21.6 +7.4
Paris Saint Germain W (1X2) 26.7 20.4 +6.3
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 65.3 -17.1
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 34.7 +17.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 34.7%. The difference — about 17.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Real Madrid W (1X2) 1.58 1.58 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.24 4.24 0.0
Paris Saint Germain W (1X2) 4.5 4.5 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.42 1.42 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.67 2.67 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: UEFA Champions League Women
  • Fixture: Real Madrid W vs Paris Saint Germain W
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-22 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 44.3% · Draw 29.0% · Away 26.7%
  • xG (showing): Real Madrid W 1.49 — Paris Saint Germain W 1.11 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 36.4% · Probability edge: +15.4 pts · Est. EV: +38.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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UEFA Champions League Women UEFA Champions League Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lyon W 1 1 0 0 3
2 Barcelona W 1 1 0 0 3
3 SL Benfica 1 1 0 0 3
4 Arsenal W 1 1 0 0 3
5 Chelsea W 1 1 0 0 3
6 Inter Milano W 1 1 0 0 3
7 Manchester City W 1 0 1 0 1
8 Bayern Munich W 1 0 1 0 1
9 Paris Saint Germain W 1 0 1 0 1
10 Real Madrid W 1 0 1 0 1
11 OH Leuven W 1 0 1 0 1
12 Roma W 1 0 1 0 1
13 Juventus W 1 0 0 1 0
14 Austria Wien W 1 0 0 1 0
15 Häcken 1 0 0 1 0
16 Køge 1 0 0 1 0
17 Paris FC W 1 0 0 1 0
18 Servette Chênois W 1 0 0 1 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lyon W 1 8 0 +8 3
2 Barcelona W 1 5 2 +3 3
3 SL Benfica 1 2 1 +1 3
4 Manchester City W 1 2 2 0 1
5 Bayern Munich W 1 2 2 0 1
6 Paris FC W 1 2 5 -3 0
7 Arsenal W 1 1 0 +1 3
8 Chelsea W 1 1 0 +1 3
9 Inter Milano W 1 1 0 +1 3
10 Paris Saint Germain W 1 1 1 0 1
11 Real Madrid W 1 1 1 0 1
12 Juventus W 1 1 2 -1 0
13 OH Leuven W 1 0 0 0 1
14 Roma W 1 0 0 0 1
15 Austria Wien W 1 0 1 -1 0
16 Häcken 1 0 1 -1 0
17 Køge 1 0 1 -1 0
18 Servette Chênois W 1 0 8 -8 0
UEFA Champions League Women World. UEFA Champions League Women Predictions