Statistics / Football / World. UEFA Champions League Women / OH Leuven W vs Roma W

OH Leuven W vs Roma W Statistics & Analysis

OH Leuven W OH Leuven W
Sep 23, 2026 - 16:45
0 1.30
0 1.30
xG Accuracy: 49%
Roma W Roma W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 OH Leuven W Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 17, 2026 · 01:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9165790

Closing Odds 1.6
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · OH Leuven W 0–0 Roma W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 2.04 percentage points on Roma W (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on OH Leuven W (1X2) by about 14.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
OH Leuven W (1X2) 35.2 20.2 +14.9
Draw (1X2) 29.6 20.9 +8.7
Roma W (1X2) 35.2 58.8 -23.7
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 58.6 -10.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 41.4 +10.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 35.2% on OH Leuven W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 20.2%. The difference — about 14.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
OH Leuven W (1X2) 4.32 4.65 -1.2
Draw (1X2) 4.25 4.5 -0.9
Roma W (1X2) 1.63 1.6 +2.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.65 1.61 +1.4
Under 2.5 goals 2.21 2.28 -1.4

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: UEFA Champions League Women
  • Fixture: OH Leuven W vs Roma W
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-23 16:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): OH Leuven W 1.3 — Roma W 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 41.7% · Probability edge: +10.1 pts · Est. EV: +18.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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UEFA Champions League Women UEFA Champions League Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lyon W 1 1 0 0 3
2 Barcelona W 1 1 0 0 3
3 SL Benfica 1 1 0 0 3
4 Arsenal W 1 1 0 0 3
5 Chelsea W 1 1 0 0 3
6 Inter Milano W 1 1 0 0 3
7 Manchester City W 1 0 1 0 1
8 Bayern Munich W 1 0 1 0 1
9 Paris Saint Germain W 1 0 1 0 1
10 Real Madrid W 1 0 1 0 1
11 OH Leuven W 1 0 1 0 1
12 Roma W 1 0 1 0 1
13 Juventus W 1 0 0 1 0
14 Austria Wien W 1 0 0 1 0
15 Häcken 1 0 0 1 0
16 Køge 1 0 0 1 0
17 Paris FC W 1 0 0 1 0
18 Servette Chênois W 1 0 0 1 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lyon W 1 8 0 +8 3
2 Barcelona W 1 5 2 +3 3
3 SL Benfica 1 2 1 +1 3
4 Manchester City W 1 2 2 0 1
5 Bayern Munich W 1 2 2 0 1
6 Paris FC W 1 2 5 -3 0
7 Arsenal W 1 1 0 +1 3
8 Chelsea W 1 1 0 +1 3
9 Inter Milano W 1 1 0 +1 3
10 Paris Saint Germain W 1 1 1 0 1
11 Real Madrid W 1 1 1 0 1
12 Juventus W 1 1 2 -1 0
13 OH Leuven W 1 0 0 0 1
14 Roma W 1 0 0 0 1
15 Austria Wien W 1 0 1 -1 0
16 Häcken 1 0 1 -1 0
17 Køge 1 0 1 -1 0
18 Servette Chênois W 1 0 8 -8 0
UEFA Champions League Women World. UEFA Champions League Women Predictions