Albion FC vs CA River Plate Statistics & Analysis

Albion FC

Sep 16, 2026 - 18:00

0 1.40

0 1.20

xG Accuracy: 49%

CA River Plate

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Albion FC Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 10, 2026 · 20:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7954027

Closing Odds 3.33

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Albion FC 0–0 CA River Plate

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices CA River Plate (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 6.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Albion FC (1X2)	40.0	41.7	-1.7
Draw (1X2)	29.5	31.2	-1.7
CA River Plate (1X2)	30.6	27.1	+3.4
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	42.1	+6.0
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	57.9	-6.0

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 42.1%. The difference — about 6.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Albion FC (1X2)	2.17	2.17
Draw (1X2)	2.9	2.9
CA River Plate (1X2)	3.33	3.33
Over 2.5 goals	2.21	2.21
Under 2.5 goals	1.61	1.61

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Copa Uruguay
Fixture: Albion FC vs CA River Plate
Kickoff: 2026-09-16 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 30.6%
xG (showing): Albion FC 1.4 — CA River Plate 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.3% · Implied: 49.2% · Probability edge: +5.1 pts · Est. EV: +8.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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