América de Cali W vs Orsomarso W Statistics & Analysis

América de Cali W

Sep 09, 2026 - 20:00

3 1.24

1 1.36

xG Accuracy: 56%

Orsomarso W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Orsomarso W América de Cali W ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 00:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7018695

Closing Odds 1.32

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result América de Cali W win · América de Cali W 3–1 Orsomarso W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Orsomarso W (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Orsomarso W (1X2) by about 26.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
América de Cali W (1X2)	32.4	67.4	-35.0
Draw (1X2)	29.6	21.2	+8.4
Orsomarso W (1X2)	38.0	11.4	+26.6
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	45.3	+2.9
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	54.7	-2.9

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 38.0% on Orsomarso W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 11.4%. The difference — about 26.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
América de Cali W (1X2)	1.32	1.32
Draw (1X2)	4.19	4.19
Orsomarso W (1X2)	7.79	7.79
Over 2.5 goals	2.03	2.03
Under 2.5 goals	1.68	1.68

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Orsomarso W; market prices América de Cali W instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: América de Cali W 1.24 xG vs Orsomarso W 1.36 → Orsomarso W 38.0%
Market: América de Cali W ~11.4% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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