Consadole Sapporo vs Fagiano Okayama Statistics & Analysis

Consadole Sapporo

Sep 29, 2026 - 10:00

1 1.32

2 1.28

xG Accuracy: 75%

Fagiano Okayama

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Consadole Sapporo Fagiano Okayama ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 23, 2026 · 01:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10417758

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Fagiano Okayama win · Consadole Sapporo 1–2 Fagiano Okayama

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: J-League Cup
Fixture: Consadole Sapporo vs Fagiano Okayama
Kickoff: 2026-09-29 10:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Consadole Sapporo 1.32 — Fagiano Okayama 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 42.4% · Probability edge: +9.4 pts · Est. EV: +18.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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