Rops vs SalPa Statistics & Analysis

Rops

Sep 26, 2026 - 15:15

3 1.35

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 59%

SalPa

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Rops Rops ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10113992

Closing Odds 3.67

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Rops win · Rops 3–1 SalPa

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 18.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Rops (1X2)	37.6	39.5	-1.9
Draw (1X2)	29.6	25.3	+4.3
SalPa (1X2)	32.9	35.3	-2.4
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	66.7	-18.5
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	33.3	+18.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 33.3%. The difference — about 18.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Rops (1X2)	2.35	2.35
Draw (1X2)	3.67	3.67
SalPa (1X2)	2.63	2.63
Over 2.5 goals	1.4	1.4
Under 2.5 goals	2.8	2.8

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Ykkönen
Fixture: Rops vs SalPa
Kickoff: 2026-09-26 15:15:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
xG (showing): Rops 1.35 — SalPa 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
Model: 45.5% · Implied: 30.7% · Probability edge: +14.8 pts · Est. EV: +47.9%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Ykkönen — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Tampere United	25	15	5	5	50
2	Rops	25	12	8	5	44
3	SalPa	25	12	6	7	42
4	OLS	25	11	8	6	41
5	VJS	25	10	10	5	40
6	FC jazz	25	11	6	8	39
7	PKKU	25	10	8	7	38
8	JJK	25	8	7	10	31
9	TPV	25	7	6	12	27
10	Inter Turku II	24	6	5	13	23
11	KPV-j	25	5	3	17	18
12	KuPS Akatemia	24	3	6	15	15

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Tampere United	25	58	26	+32	50
2	JJK	25	55	53	+2	31
3	Rops	25	52	37	+15	44
4	SalPa	25	52	45	+7	42
5	OLS	25	50	37	+13	41
6	PKKU	25	45	37	+8	38
7	VJS	25	44	32	+12	40
8	KuPS Akatemia	24	41	58	-17	15
9	FC jazz	25	38	32	+6	39
10	Inter Turku II	24	36	53	-17	23
11	TPV	25	35	48	-13	27
12	KPV-j	25	27	75	-48	18