Statistics / Football / Finland. Ykkönen / FC jazz vs VJS

FC jazz vs VJS Statistics & Analysis

FC jazz FC jazz
Sep 19, 2026 - 12:00
0 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 57%
VJS VJS
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FC jazz VJS ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8675935

Closing Odds 2.29
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result VJS win · FC jazz 0–2 VJS
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 18.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
FC jazz (1X2) 36.1 35.7 +0.4
Draw (1X2) 29.7 23.8 +5.9
VJS (1X2) 34.2 40.5 -6.3
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 66.8 -18.6
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 33.2 +18.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 33.2%. The difference — about 18.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
FC jazz (1X2) 2.6 2.6 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.9 3.9 0.0
VJS (1X2) 2.29 2.29 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.4 1.4 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.81 2.81 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Ykkönen
  • Fixture: FC jazz vs VJS
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): FC jazz 1.32 — VJS 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 31.8% · Probability edge: +20.0 pts · Est. EV: +68.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 25, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Ykkönen Ykkönen — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tampere United 24 14 5 5 47
2 SalPa 24 12 6 6 42
3 Rops 24 11 8 5 41
4 PKKU 24 10 8 6 38
5 OLS 24 10 8 6 38
6 VJS 24 9 10 5 37
7 FC jazz 24 10 6 8 36
8 JJK 24 8 7 9 31
9 TPV 24 7 6 11 27
10 Inter Turku II 24 6 5 13 23
11 KPV-j 24 5 3 16 18
12 KuPS Akatemia 24 3 6 15 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 JJK 24 55 49 +6 31
2 Tampere United 24 54 26 +28 47
3 SalPa 24 51 42 +9 42
4 Rops 24 49 36 +13 41
5 OLS 24 47 37 +10 38
6 PKKU 24 45 34 +11 38
7 VJS 24 42 32 +10 37
8 KuPS Akatemia 24 41 58 -17 15
9 Inter Turku II 24 36 53 -17 23
10 FC jazz 24 35 31 +4 36
11 TPV 24 34 45 -11 27
12 KPV-j 24 27 73 -46 18
Ykkönen Finland. Ykkönen Predictions