Statistics / Football / Finland. Veikkausliiga / VPS vs Gnistan

VPS vs Gnistan Statistics & Analysis

VPS VPS
Oct 12, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.80
0 1.83
xG Accuracy: 48%
Gnistan Gnistan
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Gnistan VPS ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 1-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 07, 2026 · 02:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13667395

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result VPS win · VPS 1–0 Gnistan
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Veikkausliiga
  • Fixture: VPS vs Gnistan
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-12 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.5% · Draw 24.9% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): VPS 1.8 — Gnistan 1.83 (total xG ≈ 3.63)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 70.2% · Implied: 54.3% · Probability edge: +15.9 pts · Est. EV: +29.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Veikkausliiga Veikkausliiga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 KuPS 22 12 7 3 43
2 Inter Turku 22 11 9 2 42
3 HJK helsinki 22 11 4 7 37
4 Gnistan 22 10 6 6 36
5 AC Oulu 22 10 4 8 34
6 VPS 22 9 6 7 33
7 Lahti 22 9 5 8 32
8 Turku PS 22 8 7 7 31
9 Ilves 22 7 4 11 25
10 SJK 22 4 7 11 19
11 FF Jaro 22 3 6 13 15
12 Mariehamn 22 3 5 14 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 KuPS 22 38 23 +15 43
2 HJK helsinki 22 36 27 +9 37
3 Gnistan 22 36 29 +7 36
4 Ilves 22 34 37 -3 25
5 Inter Turku 22 29 16 +13 42
6 VPS 22 29 22 +7 33
7 Turku PS 22 28 23 +5 31
8 Lahti 22 26 19 +7 32
9 AC Oulu 22 25 25 0 34
10 SJK 22 25 33 -8 19
11 FF Jaro 22 18 44 -26 15
12 Mariehamn 22 17 43 -26 14
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Ilves 22 6.2 3.4 +2.8 25
2 Inter Turku 22 2.5 0.2 +2.3 42
3 HJK helsinki 22 5.4 3.3 +2.1 37
4 SJK 22 4.4 3.1 +1.3 19
5 VPS 22 3.7 2.9 +0.8 33
6 Turku PS 22 3.8 3.4 +0.4 31
7 Mariehamn 22 3.9 4.6 -0.7 14
8 KuPS 22 4.3 5.2 -0.9 43
9 Gnistan 22 0.6 1.7 -1.1 36
10 Lahti 22 3.1 4.4 -1.3 32
11 AC Oulu 22 5.2 7.5 -2.3 34
12 FF Jaro 22 4.2 7.5 -3.3 15
Veikkausliiga Finland. Veikkausliiga Predictions