Statistics / Football / Venezuela. Primera División / Academia Anzoátegui vs Monagas SC

Academia Anzoátegui vs Monagas SC Statistics & Analysis

Academia Anzoátegui Academia Anzoátegui
Sep 03, 2026 - 20:00
1 1.27
3 1.33
xG Accuracy: 59%
Monagas SC Monagas SC
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Monagas SC Monagas SC ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 03, 2026 · 01:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6715039

Closing Odds 2.43
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Monagas SC win · Academia Anzoátegui 1–3 Monagas SC
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Monagas SC (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 4.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Academia Anzoátegui (1X2) 33.8 37.7 -4.0
Draw (1X2) 29.6 26.7 +2.9
Monagas SC (1X2) 36.6 35.5 +1.1
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 53.0 -4.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 47.0 +4.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 47.0%. The difference — about 4.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Academia Anzoátegui (1X2) 2.43 2.43 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.43 3.43 0.0
Monagas SC (1X2) 2.58 2.58 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.77 1.77 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.0 2.0 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Primera División
  • Fixture: Academia Anzoátegui vs Monagas SC
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-03 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Academia Anzoátegui 1.27 — Monagas SC 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 50.3% · Probability edge: +1.5 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera División Primera División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Metropolitanos FC 24 16 5 3 53
2 Deportivo Tachira FC 24 14 5 5 47
3 Real Esppor Club 24 12 7 5 43
4 UCV 24 11 5 8 38
5 Carabobo FC 24 9 10 5 37
6 Portuguesa FC 24 9 10 5 37
7 Puerto Cabello 24 9 9 6 36
8 Estudiantes de Merida FC 24 10 6 8 36
9 Caracas FC 24 5 11 8 26
10 Monagas SC 24 7 4 13 25
11 Zamora FC 24 6 7 11 25
12 Rayo Zuliano 24 7 4 13 25
13 Trujillanos FC 24 3 6 15 15
14 Academia Anzoátegui 24 3 5 16 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Metropolitanos FC 24 41 19 +22 53
2 Deportivo Tachira FC 24 41 26 +15 47
3 Real Esppor Club 24 36 22 +14 43
4 UCV 24 36 31 +5 38
5 Carabobo FC 24 35 22 +13 37
6 Portuguesa FC 24 34 24 +10 37
7 Estudiantes de Merida FC 24 33 30 +3 36
8 Puerto Cabello 24 31 23 +8 36
9 Rayo Zuliano 24 30 46 -16 25
10 Monagas SC 24 26 35 -9 25
11 Caracas FC 24 24 31 -7 26
12 Zamora FC 24 24 35 -11 25
13 Trujillanos FC 24 21 44 -23 15
14 Academia Anzoátegui 24 21 45 -24 14