Statistics / Football / Venezuela. Primera División / Rayo Zuliano vs Carabobo FC

Rayo Zuliano vs Carabobo FC Statistics & Analysis

Rayo Zuliano Rayo Zuliano
Sep 03, 2026 - 19:30
4 1.11
3 1.49
xG Accuracy: 30%
Carabobo FC Carabobo FC
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Carabobo FC Rayo Zuliano ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 4-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 03, 2026 · 01:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6715011

Closing Odds 1.41
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Rayo Zuliano win · Rayo Zuliano 4–3 Carabobo FC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 2.63 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Rayo Zuliano (1X2) by about 13.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Rayo Zuliano (1X2) 26.7 12.9 +13.7
Draw (1X2) 29.0 21.2 +7.8
Carabobo FC (1X2) 44.3 65.8 -21.6
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 51.6 -3.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 48.4 +3.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 26.7% on Rayo Zuliano (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 12.9%. The difference — about 13.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Rayo Zuliano (1X2) 6.89 7.17 -0.3
Draw (1X2) 4.1 4.38 -1.1
Carabobo FC (1X2) 1.42 1.41 +1.4
Over 2.5 goals 1.93 1.85 +2.6
Under 2.5 goals 1.85 1.97 -2.6

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera División
  • Fixture: Rayo Zuliano vs Carabobo FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-03 19:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 26.7% · Draw 29.0% · Away 44.3%
  • xG (showing): Rayo Zuliano 1.11 — Carabobo FC 1.49 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera División Primera División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Metropolitanos FC 24 16 5 3 53
2 Deportivo Tachira FC 24 14 5 5 47
3 Real Esppor Club 24 12 7 5 43
4 UCV 24 11 5 8 38
5 Carabobo FC 24 9 10 5 37
6 Portuguesa FC 24 9 10 5 37
7 Puerto Cabello 24 9 9 6 36
8 Estudiantes de Merida FC 24 10 6 8 36
9 Caracas FC 24 5 11 8 26
10 Monagas SC 24 7 4 13 25
11 Zamora FC 24 6 7 11 25
12 Rayo Zuliano 24 7 4 13 25
13 Trujillanos FC 24 3 6 15 15
14 Academia Anzoátegui 24 3 5 16 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Metropolitanos FC 24 41 19 +22 53
2 Deportivo Tachira FC 24 41 26 +15 47
3 Real Esppor Club 24 36 22 +14 43
4 UCV 24 36 31 +5 38
5 Carabobo FC 24 35 22 +13 37
6 Portuguesa FC 24 34 24 +10 37
7 Estudiantes de Merida FC 24 33 30 +3 36
8 Puerto Cabello 24 31 23 +8 36
9 Rayo Zuliano 24 30 46 -16 25
10 Monagas SC 24 26 35 -9 25
11 Caracas FC 24 24 31 -7 26
12 Zamora FC 24 24 35 -11 25
13 Trujillanos FC 24 21 44 -23 15
14 Academia Anzoátegui 24 21 45 -24 14