Persipura Jayapura vs Cilegon United Statistics & Analysis

Persipura Jayapura

Oct 09, 2026 - 08:30

1 1.72

3 0.88

xG Accuracy: 46%

Cilegon United

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Persipura Jayapura Cilegon United ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 03, 2026 · 00:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12678219

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Cilegon United win · Persipura Jayapura 1–3 Cilegon United

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Liga 2
Fixture: Persipura Jayapura vs Cilegon United
Kickoff: 2026-10-09 08:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 55.8% · Draw 26.6% · Away 17.6%
xG (showing): Persipura Jayapura 1.72 — Cilegon United 0.88 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 48.3% · Probability edge: +3.5 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 49.5% · No 50.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (12.8%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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