PSBS Biak Numfor vs Cilegon United Statistics & Analysis

PSBS Biak Numfor

Oct 03, 2026 - 12:00

1 1.58

5 1.02

xG Accuracy: 28%

Cilegon United

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 PSBS Biak Numfor Cilegon United ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 01:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11228949

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Cilegon United win · PSBS Biak Numfor 1–5 Cilegon United

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Liga 2
Fixture: PSBS Biak Numfor vs Cilegon United
Kickoff: 2026-10-03 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 48.8% · Draw 28.3% · Away 22.9%
xG (showing): PSBS Biak Numfor 1.58 — Cilegon United 1.02 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 52.3% · No 47.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 52.3% · No 47.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.0%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 05, 2026 (UTC)

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