Galata vs Yalova Yeşilovaspor Statistics & Analysis

Galata

Sep 16, 2026 - 12:00

2 1.25

1 1.35

xG Accuracy: 85%

Yalova Yeşilovaspor

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Yalova Yeşilovaspor Galata ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 10, 2026 · 01:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7846328

Closing Odds 1.89

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Galata win · Galata 2–1 Yalova Yeşilovaspor

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 5.85 percentage points on Galata (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Yalova Yeşilovaspor (1X2) by about 9.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Galata (1X2)	32.9	48.0	-15.2
Draw (1X2)	29.6	23.7	+5.9
Yalova Yeşilovaspor (1X2)	37.6	28.3	+9.3
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	54.8	-6.6
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	45.2	+6.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 37.6% on Yalova Yeşilovaspor (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 28.3%. The difference — about 9.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Galata (1X2)	2.16	1.89	+5.8
Draw (1X2)	3.57	3.83	-1.8
Yalova Yeşilovaspor (1X2)	2.82	3.21	-4.0
Over 2.5 goals	1.74	1.68	+1.9
Under 2.5 goals	1.96	2.04	-1.9

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Cup
Fixture: Galata vs Yalova Yeşilovaspor
Kickoff: 2026-09-16 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
xG (showing): Galata 1.25 — Yalova Yeşilovaspor 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 45.5% · Probability edge: +6.3 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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