Statistics / Football / Brazil. Copa do Brasil U20 / Vasco da Gama U20 vs Rio Branco ES U20

Vasco da Gama U20 vs Rio Branco ES U20 Statistics & Analysis

Vasco da Gama U20 Vasco da Gama U20
Sep 17, 2026 - 18:00
11 1.37
0 1.23
xG Accuracy: 5%
Rio Branco ES U20 Rio Branco ES U20
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (11 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Vasco da Gama U20 Vasco da Gama U20 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 11-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 03, 2026 · 08:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6754461

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Vasco da Gama U20 win · Vasco da Gama U20 11–0 Rio Branco ES U20
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Copa do Brasil U20
  • Fixture: Vasco da Gama U20 vs Rio Branco ES U20
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-09 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Vasco da Gama U20 1.37 — Rio Branco ES U20 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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