Statistics / Football / Brazil. Copa do Brasil U20 / Palmeiras U20 vs Naviraiense U20

Palmeiras U20 vs Naviraiense U20 Statistics & Analysis

Palmeiras U20 Palmeiras U20
Sep 16, 2026 - 19:00
10 1.48
0 1.12
xG Accuracy: 7%
⚽
Naviraiense U20
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (10 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Palmeiras U20 Palmeiras U20 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 10-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 03, 2026 · 08:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6754388

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Palmeiras U20 win · Palmeiras U20 10–0 Naviraiense U20
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Copa do Brasil U20
  • Fixture: Palmeiras U20 vs Naviraiense U20
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-09 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 43.9% · Draw 29.1% · Away 27.1%
  • xG (showing): Palmeiras U20 1.48 — Naviraiense U20 1.12 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 6.3% · Probability edge: +45.5 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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