Independente-AP U20 vs Sao Luiz U20 Statistics & Analysis

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Independente-AP U20

Sep 09, 2026 - 23:00

2 1.32

0 1.28

xG Accuracy: 58%

Sao Luiz U20

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Independente-AP U20 Independente-AP U20 ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 03, 2026 · 08:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6755060

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Independente-AP U20 win · Independente-AP U20 2–0 Sao Luiz U20

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Copa do Brasil U20
Fixture: Independente-AP U20 vs Sao Luiz U20
Kickoff: 2026-09-09 23:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Independente-AP U20 1.32 — Sao Luiz U20 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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