Criciuma U20 vs Cascavel U20 Statistics & Analysis

Criciuma U20

Sep 09, 2026 - 18:00

3 1.35

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 59%

Cascavel U20

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Criciuma U20 Criciuma U20 ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 03, 2026 · 08:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6752913

Closing Odds 1.81

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Criciuma U20 win · Criciuma U20 3–1 Cascavel U20

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.57 percentage points on Criciuma U20 (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Cascavel U20 (1X2) by about 7.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Criciuma U20 (1X2)	37.6	48.5	-10.9
Draw (1X2)	29.6	26.0	+3.6
Cascavel U20 (1X2)	32.9	25.5	+7.3
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	52.0	-3.8
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	48.0	+3.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.9% on Cascavel U20 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 25.5%. The difference — about 7.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Criciuma U20 (1X2)	1.8	1.81	-0.6
Draw (1X2)	3.44	3.38	+0.3
Cascavel U20 (1X2)	3.5	3.44	+0.3
Over 2.5 goals	1.77	1.77	-0.1
Under 2.5 goals	1.93	1.92	+0.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Copa do Brasil U20
Fixture: Criciuma U20 vs Cascavel U20
Kickoff: 2026-09-09 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
xG (showing): Criciuma U20 1.35 — Cascavel U20 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 47.6% · Probability edge: +4.2 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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