Statistics / Football / Uruguay. Primera División - Apertura / Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado

Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado Statistics & Analysis

Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting
Sep 13, 2026 - 19:00
1 1.39
0 1.21
xG Accuracy: 64%
Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7461885

Closing Odds 2.8
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Defensor Sporting win · Defensor Sporting 1–0 Deportivo Maldonado
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Defensor Sporting (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Defensor Sporting (1X2) by about 5.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Defensor Sporting (1X2) 39.5 34.1 +5.4
Draw (1X2) 29.5 29.6 -0.2
Deportivo Maldonado (1X2) 31.0 36.3 -5.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 43.6 +4.6
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 56.4 -4.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 39.5% on Defensor Sporting (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 34.1%. The difference — about 5.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Defensor Sporting (1X2) 2.8 2.8 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.22 3.22 0.0
Deportivo Maldonado (1X2) 2.63 2.63 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.19 2.19 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.69 1.69 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Primera División - Apertura - Apertura
  • Fixture: Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
  • xG (showing): Defensor Sporting 1.39 — Deportivo Maldonado 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 43.5% · Probability edge: +4.7 pts · Est. EV: +8.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera División - Apertura Primera División - Apertura — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Penarol 29 18 5 6 58
2 Deportivo Maldonado 30 16 7 7 55
3 Atletico Torque 29 16 5 8 53
4 Racing Montevideo 30 14 11 5 53
5 Club Nacional 30 15 4 11 49
6 Liverpool Montevideo 30 12 10 8 46
7 Wanderers 29 12 8 9 44
8 Central Espanol 30 10 8 12 38
9 Juventud 30 9 9 12 36
10 Albion FC 29 9 7 13 34
11 Cerro Largo 30 8 9 13 33
12 Cerro 30 9 6 15 33
13 Defensor Sporting 29 7 11 11 32
14 Boston River 30 8 6 16 30
15 Progreso 30 8 4 18 28
16 Danubio 29 4 14 11 26
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Atletico Torque 29 51 34 +17 53
2 Penarol 29 48 24 +24 58
3 Deportivo Maldonado 30 46 27 +19 55
4 Club Nacional 30 45 38 +7 49
5 Liverpool Montevideo 30 39 28 +11 46
6 Albion FC 29 37 38 -1 34
7 Racing Montevideo 30 36 24 +12 53
8 Wanderers 29 36 35 +1 44
9 Juventud 30 35 39 -4 36
10 Central Espanol 30 32 39 -7 38
11 Boston River 30 29 42 -13 30
12 Cerro Largo 30 28 34 -6 33
13 Defensor Sporting 29 25 33 -8 32
14 Progreso 30 25 43 -18 28
15 Danubio 29 24 38 -14 26
16 Cerro 30 23 43 -20 33
Primera División - Apertura Uruguay. Primera División - Apertura Predictions