Italy U20 W vs Japan U20 W Statistics & Analysis

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Validation Report

AI match briefing

Model Performance

AI Match Summary

Historical Recommendation

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Last Updated

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World Cup - U20 - Women — Standings

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Italy U20 W

Sep 12, 2026 - 13:00

1 1.13

1 1.47

xG Accuracy: 85%

Japan U20 W

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Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Japan U20 W Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7436977

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Italy U20 W 1–1 Japan U20 W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: World Cup - U20 - Women
Fixture: Italy U20 W vs Japan U20 W
Kickoff: 2026-09-12 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 27.5% · Draw 29.2% · Away 43.3%
xG (showing): Italy U20 W 1.13 — Japan U20 W 1.47 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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