Japan U20 W vs United States U20 W Statistics & Analysis

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Validation Report

Market intelligence

AI match briefing

Model Performance

Market briefing

Model vs. closing implied

Closing-window line move

AI Match Summary

Historical Recommendation

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Last Updated

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World Cup - U20 - Women — Standings

Japan U20 W

Sep 09, 2026 - 16:00

2 1.41

2 1.19

xG Accuracy: 68%

United States U20 W

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Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Japan U20 W Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 03, 2026 · 08:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6750580

Closing Odds 1.97

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Japan U20 W 2–2 United States U20 W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), United States U20 W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 3.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Japan U20 W (1X2)	40.5	46.5	-6.0
Draw (1X2)	29.4	26.6	+2.8
United States U20 W (1X2)	30.1	26.9	+3.2
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	51.6	-3.4
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	48.4	+3.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 48.4%. The difference — about 3.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Japan U20 W (1X2)	1.97	1.97
Draw (1X2)	3.44	3.44
United States U20 W (1X2)	3.4	3.4
Over 2.5 goals	1.83	1.83
Under 2.5 goals	1.95	1.95

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: World Cup - U20 - Women
Fixture: Japan U20 W vs United States U20 W
Kickoff: 2026-09-09 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
xG (showing): Japan U20 W 1.41 — United States U20 W 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 48.8% · Probability edge: +3.0 pts · Est. EV: +3.1%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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