PAOK II vs Ellas Syros Statistics & Analysis

PAOK II

Oct 05, 2026 - 11:45

0 1.31

0 1.29

xG Accuracy: 49%

Ellas Syros

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 PAOK II Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 02:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11681836

Closing Odds 2.75

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · PAOK II 0–0 Ellas Syros

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.03 percentage points on Ellas Syros (1X2) between PRE20 and PRE1.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
PAOK II (1X2)	35.6	36.2	-0.6
Draw (1X2)	29.7	30.3	-0.6
Ellas Syros (1X2)	34.7	33.6	+1.2

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: draftkings

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE20)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
PAOK II (1X2)	2.5	2.55	-0.9
Draw (1X2)	3.05	3.05	-0.1
Ellas Syros (1X2)	2.85	2.75	+1.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Super League 2
Fixture: PAOK II vs Ellas Syros
Kickoff: 2026-10-05 11:45:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
xG (showing): PAOK II 1.31 — Ellas Syros 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 48.2% · Implied: 42.5% · Probability edge: +5.7 pts · Est. EV: +8.5%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Super League 2 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Marko	4	4	0	0	12
2	Larisa	5	3	2	0	11
3	Panionios	5	3	1	1	10
4	Kallithea	4	3	0	1	9
5	Ellas Syros	4	2	2	0	8
6	Panthrakikos	5	2	2	1	8
7	Panserraikos	5	2	1	2	7
8	Asteras Tripolis II	5	2	0	3	6
9	Pyrgos 1968	5	1	2	2	5
10	Niki Volos	5	1	1	3	4
11	Apollon Pontou	4	1	1	2	4
12	Nestos Chrisoupolis	4	1	1	2	4
13	PAOK II	4	1	1	2	4
14	Olympiakos Piraeus II	4	1	1	2	4
15	Anagennisi Karditsas	5	0	2	3	2
16	Zakynthos	4	0	1	3	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Larisa	5	9	3	+6	11
2	Ellas Syros	4	9	3	+6	8
3	Marko	4	9	4	+5	12
4	Kallithea	4	7	4	+3	9
5	Panserraikos	5	7	5	+2	7
6	Niki Volos	5	6	7	-1	4
7	Olympiakos Piraeus II	4	6	10	-4	4
8	Panthrakikos	5	5	3	+2	8
9	Panionios	5	4	2	+2	10
10	Apollon Pontou	4	3	4	-1	4
11	Asteras Tripolis II	5	3	5	-2	6
12	Nestos Chrisoupolis	4	3	5	-2	4
13	PAOK II	4	3	5	-2	4
14	Pyrgos 1968	5	2	5	-3	5
15	Zakynthos	4	2	7	-5	1
16	Anagennisi Karditsas	5	1	7	-6	2