Ellas Syros vs Pyrgos 1968 Statistics & Analysis

Ellas Syros

Sep 27, 2026 - 14:00

0 1.34

0 1.26

xG Accuracy: 49%

Pyrgos 1968

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Ellas Syros Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10102757

Closing Odds 1.65

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Ellas Syros 0–0 Pyrgos 1968

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.85 percentage points on Pyrgos 1968 (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE5.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Pyrgos 1968 (1X2) by about 15.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Ellas Syros (1X2)	37.0	56.4	-19.4
Draw (1X2)	29.6	25.9	+3.7
Pyrgos 1968 (1X2)	33.4	17.7	+15.6
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	45.4	+2.8
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	54.6	-2.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.4% on Pyrgos 1968 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 17.7%. The difference — about 15.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)	Implied Δ (pp)
Ellas Syros (1X2)	1.67	1.65	+0.8
Draw (1X2)	3.6	3.6	+0.1
Pyrgos 1968 (1X2)	5.0	5.25	-0.8
Over 2.5 goals	2.08	2.08	0.0
Under 2.5 goals	1.73	1.73	0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Super League 2
Fixture: Ellas Syros vs Pyrgos 1968
Kickoff: 2026-09-27 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
xG (showing): Ellas Syros 1.34 — Pyrgos 1968 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League 2 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Larisa	4	3	1	0	10
2	Panionios	4	3	1	0	10
3	Marko	3	3	0	0	9
4	Ellas Syros	4	2	2	0	8
5	Panthrakikos	3	2	1	0	7
6	Panserraikos	4	2	0	2	6
7	Kallithea	3	2	0	1	6
8	Apollon Pontou	4	1	1	2	4
9	Nestos Chrisoupolis	4	1	1	2	4
10	PAOK II	4	1	1	2	4
11	Olympiakos Piraeus II	4	1	1	2	4
12	Niki Volos	4	1	0	3	3
13	Asteras Tripolis II	3	1	0	2	3
14	Anagennisi Karditsas	4	0	2	2	2
15	Pyrgos 1968	4	0	2	2	2
16	Zakynthos	4	0	1	3	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Ellas Syros	4	9	3	+6	8
2	Larisa	4	7	1	+6	10
3	Marko	3	7	3	+4	9
4	Panserraikos	4	6	4	+2	6
5	Olympiakos Piraeus II	4	6	10	-4	4
6	Kallithea	3	5	4	+1	6
7	Panionios	4	4	0	+4	10
8	Niki Volos	4	4	5	-1	3
9	Panthrakikos	3	3	0	+3	7
10	Apollon Pontou	4	3	4	-1	4
11	Nestos Chrisoupolis	4	3	5	-2	4
12	PAOK II	4	3	5	-2	4
13	Zakynthos	4	2	7	-5	1
14	Asteras Tripolis II	3	1	3	-2	3
15	Anagennisi Karditsas	4	1	5	-4	2
16	Pyrgos 1968	4	0	5	-5	2