Larisa vs PAOK II Statistics & Analysis

Larisa

Sep 27, 2026 - 13:00

1 1.51

0 1.09

xG Accuracy: 64%

PAOK II

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Larisa Larisa ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10102661

Closing Odds 1.53

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Larisa win · Larisa 1–0 PAOK II

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE10 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), PAOK II (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on PAOK II (1X2) by about 9.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Larisa (1X2)	45.3	60.7	-15.4
Draw (1X2)	28.9	23.2	+5.7
PAOK II (1X2)	25.8	16.1	+9.7
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	48.7	-0.5
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	51.3	+0.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 25.8% on PAOK II (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 16.1%. The difference — about 9.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE10 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE10)
Larisa (1X2)	1.53	1.53
Draw (1X2)	4.0	4.0
PAOK II (1X2)	5.75	5.75
Over 2.5 goals	1.95	1.95
Under 2.5 goals	1.85	1.85

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Super League 2
Fixture: Larisa vs PAOK II
Kickoff: 2026-09-27 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 45.3% · Draw 28.9% · Away 25.8%
xG (showing): Larisa 1.51 — PAOK II 1.09 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League 2 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Larisa	4	3	1	0	10
2	Panionios	4	3	1	0	10
3	Marko	3	3	0	0	9
4	Ellas Syros	4	2	2	0	8
5	Panthrakikos	3	2	1	0	7
6	Panserraikos	4	2	0	2	6
7	Kallithea	3	2	0	1	6
8	Apollon Pontou	4	1	1	2	4
9	Nestos Chrisoupolis	4	1	1	2	4
10	PAOK II	4	1	1	2	4
11	Olympiakos Piraeus II	4	1	1	2	4
12	Niki Volos	4	1	0	3	3
13	Asteras Tripolis II	3	1	0	2	3
14	Anagennisi Karditsas	4	0	2	2	2
15	Pyrgos 1968	4	0	2	2	2
16	Zakynthos	4	0	1	3	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Ellas Syros	4	9	3	+6	8
2	Larisa	4	7	1	+6	10
3	Marko	3	7	3	+4	9
4	Panserraikos	4	6	4	+2	6
5	Olympiakos Piraeus II	4	6	10	-4	4
6	Kallithea	3	5	4	+1	6
7	Panionios	4	4	0	+4	10
8	Niki Volos	4	4	5	-1	3
9	Panthrakikos	3	3	0	+3	7
10	Apollon Pontou	4	3	4	-1	4
11	Nestos Chrisoupolis	4	3	5	-2	4
12	PAOK II	4	3	5	-2	4
13	Zakynthos	4	2	7	-5	1
14	Asteras Tripolis II	3	1	3	-2	3
15	Anagennisi Karditsas	4	1	5	-4	2
16	Pyrgos 1968	4	0	5	-5	2