Statistics / Football / Honduras. Liga Nacional / Atlético Choloma vs Estrella Roja

Atlético Choloma vs Estrella Roja Statistics & Analysis

Atlético Choloma Atlético Choloma
Sep 19, 2026 - 01:30
2 1.19
0 1.41
xG Accuracy: 54%
Estrella Roja Estrella Roja
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Estrella Roja Atlético Choloma ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 00:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8654068

Closing Odds 2.6
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Atlético Choloma win · Atlético Choloma 2–0 Estrella Roja
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 2.27 percentage points on Estrella Roja (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 5.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Atlético Choloma (1X2) 30.1 34.3 -4.2
Draw (1X2) 29.4 27.0 +2.4
Estrella Roja (1X2) 40.5 38.7 +1.7
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 54.0 -5.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 46.0 +5.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 46.0%. The difference — about 5.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Atlético Choloma (1X2) 2.45 2.6 -2.2
Draw (1X2) 3.3 3.3 -0.1
Estrella Roja (1X2) 2.45 2.3 +2.3
Over 2.5 goals 1.75 1.75 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.05 2.05 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga Nacional
  • Fixture: Atlético Choloma vs Estrella Roja
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 01:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Away 40.5%
  • xG (showing): Atlético Choloma 1.19 — Estrella Roja 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 46.1% · Probability edge: +5.7 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Nacional Liga Nacional — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Real Espana 8 5 3 0 18
2 CD Olimpia 8 5 2 1 17
3 CD Marathon 8 5 2 1 17
4 CD Motagua 8 4 1 3 13
5 Génesis 8 3 2 3 11
6 Olancho 8 2 5 1 11
7 Estrella Roja 8 2 3 3 9
8 Atletico Independiente 8 2 3 3 9
9 Lobos Upnfm 8 2 2 4 8
10 Atlético Choloma 8 2 1 5 7
11 Juticalpa 8 2 0 6 6
12 Platense FC 8 1 2 5 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CD Olimpia 8 19 7 +12 17
2 CD Marathon 8 14 6 +8 17
3 Real Espana 8 13 4 +9 18
4 Estrella Roja 8 13 16 -3 9
5 CD Motagua 8 11 8 +3 13
6 Génesis 8 10 6 +4 11
7 Juticalpa 8 8 19 -11 6
8 Atletico Independiente 8 7 11 -4 9
9 Lobos Upnfm 8 7 12 -5 8
10 Olancho 8 6 5 +1 11
11 Atlético Choloma 8 6 8 -2 7
12 Platense FC 8 6 18 -12 5