Thimphu vs Tensung Statistics & Analysis

Thimphu

Sep 25, 2026 - 12:00

4 1.43

1 1.17

xG Accuracy: 47%

Tensung

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Thimphu Thimphu ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 19, 2026 · 00:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9561298

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Thimphu win · Thimphu 4–1 Tensung

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Premier League
Fixture: Thimphu vs Tensung
Kickoff: 2026-09-25 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.3%
xG (showing): Thimphu 1.43 — Tensung 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Paro	16	14	1	1	43
2	Thimphu City	17	12	4	1	40
3	Thimphu	17	10	1	6	31
4	Transport United	17	9	2	6	29
5	RTC	17	7	4	6	25
6	Drukpa	17	6	5	6	23
7	Bhutan U19	16	5	4	7	19
8	Tsirang	18	4	4	10	16
9	Tensung	17	2	2	13	8
10	Ugyen Academy	18	2	1	15	7

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Paro	16	66	12	+54	43
2	Thimphu City	17	49	12	+37	40
3	Drukpa	17	35	28	+7	23
4	Bhutan U19	16	28	38	-10	19
5	Transport United	17	27	23	+4	29
6	Tsirang	18	27	48	-21	16
7	Thimphu	17	26	21	+5	31
8	RTC	17	24	19	+5	25
9	Ugyen Academy	18	15	61	-46	7
10	Tensung	17	13	48	-35	8