Transport United vs Paro Statistics & Analysis

Transport United

Sep 12, 2026 - 12:00

2 1.18

4 1.42

xG Accuracy: 39%

Paro

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Paro Paro ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7429019

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Paro win · Transport United 2–4 Paro

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Premier League
Fixture: Transport United vs Paro
Kickoff: 2026-09-12 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.0%
xG (showing): Transport United 1.18 — Paro 1.42 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Paro	16	14	1	1	43
2	Thimphu City	17	12	4	1	40
3	Thimphu	17	10	1	6	31
4	Transport United	17	9	2	6	29
5	RTC	18	8	4	6	28
6	Drukpa	17	6	5	6	23
7	Bhutan U19	16	5	4	7	19
8	Tsirang	18	4	4	10	16
9	Tensung	18	2	2	14	8
10	Ugyen Academy	18	2	1	15	7

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Paro	16	66	12	+54	43
2	Thimphu City	17	49	12	+37	40
3	Drukpa	17	35	28	+7	23
4	RTC	18	29	20	+9	28
5	Bhutan U19	16	28	38	-10	19
6	Transport United	17	27	23	+4	29
7	Tsirang	18	27	48	-21	16
8	Thimphu	17	26	21	+5	31
9	Ugyen Academy	18	15	61	-46	7
10	Tensung	18	14	53	-39	8