Statistics / Football / Paraguay. Division Intermedia / Sportivo Carapeguá vs Benjamín Aceval

Sportivo Carapeguá vs Benjamín Aceval Statistics & Analysis

Sportivo Carapeguá Sportivo Carapeguá
Sep 10, 2026 - 19:30
2 1.26
0 1.34
xG Accuracy: 56%
Benjamín Aceval Benjamín Aceval
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Benjamín Aceval Sportivo Carapeguá ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 04, 2026 · 01:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6851443

Closing Odds 1.95
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Sportivo Carapeguá win · Sportivo Carapeguá 2–0 Benjamín Aceval
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 2.71 percentage points on Sportivo Carapeguá (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Sportivo Carapeguá (1X2) by about 6.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Sportivo Carapeguá (1X2) 33.4 27.4 +6.0
Draw (1X2) 29.6 26.5 +3.1
Benjamín Aceval (1X2) 37.0 46.1 -9.0
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 53.9 -5.7
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 46.1 +5.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.4% on Sportivo Carapeguá (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 27.4%. The difference — about 6.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Sportivo Carapeguá (1X2) 2.95 3.28 -2.7
Draw (1X2) 3.4 3.39 +0.4
Benjamín Aceval (1X2) 2.03 1.95 +2.3
Over 2.5 goals 1.7 1.72 -0.2
Under 2.5 goals 2.0 2.01 +0.2

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Division Intermedia
  • Fixture: Sportivo Carapeguá vs Benjamín Aceval
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-10 19:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Sportivo Carapeguá 1.26 — Benjamín Aceval 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 46.6% · Probability edge: +5.2 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Division Intermedia Division Intermedia — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Deportivo Santani 26 16 3 7 51
2 General Caballero 26 15 5 6 50
3 12 de Junio VH 26 14 7 5 49
4 Benjamín Aceval 26 12 6 8 42
5 SOL DE America 26 9 13 4 40
6 Sportivo Carapeguá 26 11 5 10 38
7 Independiente F.b.c. 26 9 10 7 37
8 Paraguari AC 25 10 5 10 35
9 Resistencia 26 8 8 10 32
10 Fernando De La Mora 25 8 7 10 31
11 Atlético Tembetary 25 8 6 11 30
12 Deportivo Capiata 26 6 10 10 28
13 3 de Noviembre 26 6 8 12 26
14 Guairena FC 25 6 7 12 25
15 Tacuary 26 4 12 10 24
16 Encarnación 26 6 4 16 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 General Caballero 26 52 33 +19 50
2 Deportivo Santani 26 45 25 +20 51
3 Benjamín Aceval 26 40 32 +8 42
4 Independiente F.b.c. 26 37 33 +4 37
5 12 de Junio VH 26 35 26 +9 49
6 Paraguari AC 25 34 33 +1 35
7 Atlético Tembetary 25 34 39 -5 30
8 3 de Noviembre 26 33 39 -6 26
9 SOL DE America 26 32 24 +8 40
10 Sportivo Carapeguá 26 31 38 -7 38
11 Deportivo Capiata 26 30 36 -6 28
12 Resistencia 26 28 32 -4 32
13 Fernando De La Mora 25 28 35 -7 31
14 Tacuary 26 28 40 -12 24
15 Encarnación 26 25 36 -11 22
16 Guairena FC 25 22 33 -11 25
Division Intermedia Paraguay. Division Intermedia Predictions