Statistics / Football / Nicaragua. Primera Division / Jalapa vs Rancho Santana

Jalapa vs Rancho Santana Statistics & Analysis

Jalapa Jalapa
Sep 02, 2026 - 22:00
1 1.51
1 1.09
xG Accuracy: 85%
Rancho Santana Rancho Santana
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Jalapa Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 01:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6123468

Closing Odds 1.73
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Jalapa 1–1 Rancho Santana
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Rancho Santana (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 4.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Jalapa (1X2) 45.3 52.0 -6.7
Draw (1X2) 28.9 25.0 +4.0
Rancho Santana (1X2) 25.8 23.1 +2.7
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 52.6 -4.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 47.4 +4.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 47.4%. The difference — about 4.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Jalapa (1X2) 1.73 1.73 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.6 3.6 0.0
Rancho Santana (1X2) 3.9 3.9 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.8 1.8 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.0 2.0 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera Division
  • Fixture: Jalapa vs Rancho Santana
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-02 22:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.3% · Draw 28.9% · Away 25.8%
  • xG (showing): Jalapa 1.51 — Rancho Santana 1.09 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 45.9% · Probability edge: +5.9 pts · Est. EV: +7.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera Division Primera Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Managua 9 7 2 0 23
2 Diriangén 9 6 3 0 21
3 Real Estelí 9 5 3 1 18
4 UNAN Managua 9 5 2 2 17
5 San Marcos 9 3 2 4 11
6 H&H Export 9 3 2 4 11
7 Matagalpa 9 3 0 6 9
8 Walter Ferretti 10 2 1 7 7
9 Jalapa 10 2 1 7 7
10 Rancho Santana 9 1 2 6 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Managua 9 27 9 +18 23
2 Diriangén 9 18 7 +11 21
3 Real Estelí 9 17 6 +11 18
4 Walter Ferretti 10 12 17 -5 7
5 UNAN Managua 9 11 7 +4 17
6 San Marcos 9 9 12 -3 11
7 H&H Export 9 9 17 -8 11
8 Rancho Santana 9 7 14 -7 5
9 Jalapa 10 5 14 -9 7
10 Matagalpa 9 4 16 -12 9