Predictions / Football / World. UEFA Europa League / Plzen vs Levski Sofia

Prediction Audit: Plzen vs Levski Sofia Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Plzen Plzen
Oct 22, 2026 - 19:00
1 1.74
2 1.44
xG Accuracy: 70%
Levski Sofia Levski Sofia

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade Not available

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Plzen Levski Sofia ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.18) — 3 goals materialised
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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Oct 22, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
  2. FT Full-time result Levski Sofia win · 1–2

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: No prediction record
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Prediction Time: Oct 16, 2026 · 01:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-15873742

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Levski Sofia win · Plzen 1–2 Levski Sofia
Prediction No prediction record
Decision Grade Not assessed

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: UEFA Europa League
  • Fixture: Plzen vs Levski Sofia
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-22 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 48.8% · Draw 25.4% · Away 25.8%
  • xG (showing): Plzen 1.74 — Levski Sofia 1.44 (total xG ≈ 3.18)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 64.3% · Implied: 55.3% · Probability edge: +9.0 pts · Est. EV: +11.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 64.3% · No 35.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Cautious / Wait

Outcome: —

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

November 15, 2026 (UTC)

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UEFA Europa League UEFA Europa League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Benfica 4 4 0 0 12
2 Bournemouth 4 4 0 0 12
3 Ferencvarosi TC 4 4 0 0 12
4 Union St. Gilloise 4 3 1 0 10
5 Juventus 4 3 1 0 10
6 Olympiakos Piraeus 4 3 1 0 10
7 Bayer Leverkusen 4 3 0 1 9
8 Besiktas 4 2 1 1 7
9 Dinamo Zagreb 4 2 1 1 7
10 Levski Sofia 4 2 1 1 7
11 Sunderland 4 2 1 1 7
12 NEC Nijmegen 4 2 1 1 7
13 Lyon 4 2 1 1 7
14 AZ Alkmaar 4 2 0 2 6
15 Anderlecht 4 2 0 2 6
16 OFI 4 2 0 2 6
17 Rennes 4 1 3 0 6
18 Omonia Nicosia 4 2 0 2 6
19 Torreense 4 2 0 2 6
20 Real Sociedad 4 1 2 1 5
21 Crystal Palace 4 1 2 1 5
22 Sparta Praha 4 1 1 2 4
23 1899 Hoffenheim 4 1 1 2 4
24 Sturm Graz 4 1 1 2 4
25 Celje 4 1 1 2 4
26 Red Bull Salzburg 4 1 1 2 4
27 Celta Vigo 4 1 0 3 3
28 AC Milan 4 1 0 3 3
29 Jagiellonia 4 1 0 3 3
30 Plzen 4 1 0 3 3
31 Marseille 4 1 0 3 3
32 Celtic 4 1 0 3 3
33 Hapoel Beer Sheva 4 0 1 3 1
34 Lillestrom 4 0 1 3 1
35 Lech Poznan 4 0 1 3 1
36 Ararat-Armenia 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Benfica 4 13 3 +10 12
2 Bournemouth 4 11 2 +9 12
3 Ferencvarosi TC 4 11 3 +8 12
4 Juventus 4 11 4 +7 10
5 Besiktas 4 11 8 +3 7
6 Union St. Gilloise 4 10 2 +8 10
7 Real Sociedad 4 9 4 +5 5
8 Crystal Palace 4 9 6 +3 5
9 Bayer Leverkusen 4 8 1 +7 9
10 NEC Nijmegen 4 8 9 -1 7
11 AZ Alkmaar 4 7 4 +3 6
12 Torreense 4 7 9 -2 6
13 Anderlecht 4 6 3 +3 6
14 Sparta Praha 4 6 6 0 4
15 1899 Hoffenheim 4 6 6 0 4
16 Lyon 4 6 7 -1 7
17 Omonia Nicosia 4 6 7 -1 6
18 Celtic 4 6 11 -5 3
19 Dinamo Zagreb 4 5 4 +1 7
20 OFI 4 5 4 +1 6
21 Celje 4 5 9 -4 4
22 Olympiakos Piraeus 4 4 1 +3 10
23 Levski Sofia 4 4 3 +1 7
24 Rennes 4 4 3 +1 6
25 Sunderland 4 4 4 0 7
26 Celta Vigo 4 4 6 -2 3
27 AC Milan 4 4 7 -3 3
28 Jagiellonia 4 4 7 -3 3
29 Ararat-Armenia 4 4 14 -10 0
30 Sturm Graz 4 3 6 -3 4
31 Plzen 4 3 7 -4 3
32 Red Bull Salzburg 4 3 8 -5 4
33 Marseille 4 2 6 -4 3
34 Lillestrom 4 2 10 -8 1
35 Lech Poznan 4 2 12 -10 1
36 Hapoel Beer Sheva 4 1 8 -7 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Bayer Leverkusen 4 11.5 2.9 +8.6 9
2 Benfica 4 9.3 3.7 +5.6 12
3 Bournemouth 4 8.3 2.7 +5.6 12
4 Union St. Gilloise 4 6.8 2.5 +4.3 10
5 Sunderland 4 9.5 5.8 +3.7 7
6 Ferencvarosi TC 4 7.7 4.0 +3.7 12
7 Olympiakos Piraeus 4 6.4 2.8 +3.6 10
8 AZ Alkmaar 4 8.4 5.0 +3.4 6
9 Besiktas 4 5.7 2.9 +2.8 7
10 Anderlecht 4 6.2 4.5 +1.7 6
11 Dinamo Zagreb 4 6.6 5.1 +1.5 7
12 Rennes 4 5.7 4.2 +1.5 6
13 Plzen 4 5.2 4.1 +1.1 3
14 NEC Nijmegen 4 5.5 5.2 +0.3 7
15 Juventus 4 4.8 5.0 -0.2 10
16 Celta Vigo 4 4.7 5.0 -0.3 3
17 Marseille 4 2.9 3.4 -0.5 3
18 Sturm Graz 4 6.2 6.8 -0.6 4
19 Sparta Praha 4 6.5 7.2 -0.7 4
20 Real Sociedad 4 4.6 5.3 -0.7 5
21 1899 Hoffenheim 4 4.6 5.4 -0.8 4
22 Crystal Palace 4 3.2 4.1 -0.9 5
23 Jagiellonia 4 4.2 5.3 -1.1 3
24 Levski Sofia 4 3.2 4.4 -1.2 7
25 Lyon 4 5.3 6.6 -1.3 7
26 Lillestrom 4 3.8 5.7 -1.9 1
27 AC Milan 4 5.8 7.9 -2.1 3
28 Hapoel Beer Sheva 4 4.0 6.7 -2.7 1
29 Omonia Nicosia 4 4.5 7.3 -2.8 6
30 Torreense 4 2.7 5.5 -2.8 6
31 Celtic 4 3.2 6.2 -3.0 3
32 Ararat-Armenia 4 4.9 8.4 -3.5 0
33 Celje 4 4.7 9.0 -4.3 4
34 Red Bull Salzburg 4 3.3 7.7 -4.4 4
35 OFI 4 1.3 6.3 -5.0 6
36 Lech Poznan 4 3.7 10.5 -6.8 1