Statistics / Football / Mexico. Primera Premier / Montañeses vs Tapachula

Montañeses vs Tapachula Statistics & Analysis

Montañeses Montañeses
Oct 11, 2026 - 18:00
2 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 77%
Tapachula Tapachula
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Montañeses Montañeses ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13232898

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Montañeses win · Montañeses 2–1 Tapachula
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera Premier
  • Fixture: Montañeses vs Tapachula
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Montañeses 1.32 — Tapachula 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
  • Model: 45.5% · Implied: 43.5% · Probability edge: +2.0 pts · Est. EV: +9.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera Premier Primera Premier — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Irapuato 6 6 0 0 18
2 Pioneros de Cancún 6 5 0 1 15
3 Reboceros La Piedad 6 5 0 1 15
4 Racing de Veracruz 6 4 2 0 14
5 Celaya 7 4 1 2 13
6 Tigres de Alica 7 3 2 2 11
7 Zacatepec 1948 6 3 1 2 10
8 Jaguares de Chiapas 6 3 1 2 10
9 Montañeses 7 3 1 3 10
10 Los Cabos United 7 3 0 4 9
11 Cordobés 6 2 1 3 7
12 Deportiva Venados 6 1 2 3 5
13 Chapulineros 6 1 2 3 5
14 H2O Purepechas 6 1 1 4 4
15 Inter Playa del Carmen 6 1 1 4 4
16 Lobos ULMX 6 1 1 4 4
17 Tapachula 6 1 0 5 3
18 Tritons Vallarta 6 0 2 4 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Pioneros de Cancún 6 18 7 +11 15
2 Racing de Veracruz 6 18 7 +11 14
3 Irapuato 6 14 4 +10 18
4 Reboceros La Piedad 6 13 7 +6 15
5 Celaya 7 12 7 +5 13
6 Montañeses 7 12 13 -1 10
7 Deportiva Venados 6 10 14 -4 5
8 Tigres de Alica 7 9 7 +2 11
9 Zacatepec 1948 6 8 8 0 10
10 Los Cabos United 7 7 9 -2 9
11 Jaguares de Chiapas 6 6 6 0 10
12 Chapulineros 6 6 12 -6 5
13 Tapachula 6 6 16 -10 3
14 Cordobés 6 5 7 -2 7
15 Inter Playa del Carmen 6 5 11 -6 4
16 Lobos ULMX 6 5 11 -6 4
17 H2O Purepechas 6 3 7 -4 4
18 Tritons Vallarta 6 3 7 -4 2
Primera Premier Mexico. Primera Premier Predictions