Statistics / Football / Mexico. Primera Premier / Tapachula vs Chapulineros

Tapachula vs Chapulineros Statistics & Analysis

Tapachula Tapachula
Oct 03, 2026 - 23:00
2 1.32
3 1.28
xG Accuracy: 52%
Chapulineros Chapulineros
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Tapachula Chapulineros ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11262901

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Chapulineros win · Tapachula 2–3 Chapulineros
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Primera Premier
  • Fixture: Tapachula vs Chapulineros
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 22:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Tapachula 1.32 — Chapulineros 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 44.3% · Probability edge: +7.5 pts · Est. EV: +15.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 05, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera Premier Primera Premier — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Irapuato 5 5 0 0 15
2 Celaya 5 4 1 0 13
3 Pioneros de Cancún 5 4 0 1 12
4 Racing de Veracruz 5 3 2 0 11
5 Zacatepec 1948 6 3 2 1 11
6 Reboceros La Piedad 5 3 1 1 10
7 Los Cabos United 5 3 0 2 9
8 Tigres de Alica 5 2 2 1 8
9 Montañeses 6 2 1 3 7
10 Deportiva Venados 4 1 2 1 5
11 Jaguares de Chiapas 4 1 1 2 4
12 Tapachula 4 1 0 3 3
13 Tritons Vallarta 4 0 2 2 2
14 Chapulineros 5 0 2 3 2
15 Lobos ULMX 4 0 1 3 1
16 Cordobés 4 0 1 3 1
17 H2O Purepechas 4 0 1 3 1
18 Inter Playa del Carmen 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Racing de Veracruz 5 16 6 +10 11
2 Pioneros de Cancún 5 14 6 +8 12
3 Irapuato 5 13 4 +9 15
4 Celaya 5 11 4 +7 13
5 Reboceros La Piedad 5 10 6 +4 10
6 Montañeses 6 10 12 -2 7
7 Tigres de Alica 5 8 6 +2 8
8 Zacatepec 1948 6 8 7 +1 11
9 Deportiva Venados 4 8 7 +1 5
10 Los Cabos United 5 6 5 +1 9
11 Jaguares de Chiapas 4 4 6 -2 4
12 Lobos ULMX 4 3 8 -5 1
13 Chapulineros 5 3 10 -7 2
14 Tapachula 4 3 11 -8 3
15 Tritons Vallarta 4 2 4 -2 2
16 Cordobés 4 2 7 -5 1
17 Inter Playa del Carmen 4 2 9 -7 1
18 H2O Purepechas 4 1 6 -5 1
Primera Premier Mexico. Primera Premier Predictions