Statistics / Football / Mexico. Primera Premier / Zacatepec 1948 vs Reboceros La Piedad

Zacatepec 1948 vs Reboceros La Piedad Statistics & Analysis

Zacatepec 1948 Zacatepec 1948
Oct 03, 2026 - 21:30
2 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 68%
Reboceros La Piedad Reboceros La Piedad
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Zacatepec 1948 Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11262340

Closing Odds 2.22
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Zacatepec 1948 2–2 Reboceros La Piedad
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Zacatepec 1948 (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Zacatepec 1948 (1X2) by about 3.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Zacatepec 1948 (1X2) 36.1 33.0 +3.1
Draw (1X2) 29.7 26.9 +2.8
Reboceros La Piedad (1X2) 34.2 40.1 -5.9
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 48.0 +0.2
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 52.0 -0.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.1% on Zacatepec 1948 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 33.0%. The difference — about 3.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Zacatepec 1948 (1X2) 2.7 2.7 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.31 3.31 0.0
Reboceros La Piedad (1X2) 2.22 2.22 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.93 1.93 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.78 1.78 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera Premier
  • Fixture: Zacatepec 1948 vs Reboceros La Piedad
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 21:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Zacatepec 1948 1.32 — Reboceros La Piedad 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 05, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera Premier Primera Premier — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Irapuato 5 5 0 0 15
2 Celaya 5 4 1 0 13
3 Pioneros de Cancún 5 4 0 1 12
4 Racing de Veracruz 5 3 2 0 11
5 Zacatepec 1948 6 3 2 1 11
6 Reboceros La Piedad 5 3 1 1 10
7 Los Cabos United 5 3 0 2 9
8 Tigres de Alica 5 2 2 1 8
9 Montañeses 6 2 1 3 7
10 Deportiva Venados 4 1 2 1 5
11 Jaguares de Chiapas 4 1 1 2 4
12 Tapachula 4 1 0 3 3
13 Tritons Vallarta 4 0 2 2 2
14 Chapulineros 5 0 2 3 2
15 Lobos ULMX 4 0 1 3 1
16 Cordobés 4 0 1 3 1
17 H2O Purepechas 4 0 1 3 1
18 Inter Playa del Carmen 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Racing de Veracruz 5 16 6 +10 11
2 Pioneros de Cancún 5 14 6 +8 12
3 Irapuato 5 13 4 +9 15
4 Celaya 5 11 4 +7 13
5 Reboceros La Piedad 5 10 6 +4 10
6 Montañeses 6 10 12 -2 7
7 Tigres de Alica 5 8 6 +2 8
8 Zacatepec 1948 6 8 7 +1 11
9 Deportiva Venados 4 8 7 +1 5
10 Los Cabos United 5 6 5 +1 9
11 Jaguares de Chiapas 4 4 6 -2 4
12 Lobos ULMX 4 3 8 -5 1
13 Chapulineros 5 3 10 -7 2
14 Tapachula 4 3 11 -8 3
15 Tritons Vallarta 4 2 4 -2 2
16 Cordobés 4 2 7 -5 1
17 Inter Playa del Carmen 4 2 9 -7 1
18 H2O Purepechas 4 1 6 -5 1
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