Statistics / Football / Mexico. Primera Premier / Chapulineros vs Celaya

Chapulineros vs Celaya Statistics & Analysis

Chapulineros Chapulineros
Sep 12, 2026 - 00:00
1 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 85%
Celaya Celaya
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Chapulineros Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 02:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7044896

Closing Odds 1.8
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Chapulineros 1–1 Celaya
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Chapulineros (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Chapulineros (1X2) by about 11.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Chapulineros (1X2) 36.1 24.8 +11.3
Draw (1X2) 29.7 25.5 +4.1
Celaya (1X2) 34.2 49.6 -15.4
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 54.0 -5.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 46.0 +5.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.1% on Chapulineros (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 24.8%. The difference — about 11.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Chapulineros (1X2) 3.6 3.6 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.5 3.5 0.0
Celaya (1X2) 1.8 1.8 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.75 1.75 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.05 2.05 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera Premier
  • Fixture: Chapulineros vs Celaya
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-11 23:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Chapulineros 1.32 — Celaya 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 46.1% · Probability edge: +5.7 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera Premier Primera Premier — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Irapuato 4 4 0 0 12
2 Racing de Veracruz 4 3 1 0 10
3 Celaya 4 3 1 0 10
4 Zacatepec 1948 5 3 1 1 10
5 Pioneros de Cancún 4 3 0 1 9
6 Reboceros La Piedad 4 3 0 1 9
7 Tigres de Alica 4 2 1 1 7
8 Los Cabos United 4 2 0 2 6
9 Deportiva Venados 3 1 2 0 5
10 Montañeses 4 1 1 2 4
11 Jaguares de Chiapas 3 1 0 2 3
12 Tapachula 4 1 0 3 3
13 Chapulineros 5 0 2 3 2
14 Lobos ULMX 3 0 1 2 1
15 Tritons Vallarta 3 0 1 2 1
16 H2O Purepechas 3 0 1 2 1
17 Cordobés 4 0 1 3 1
18 Inter Playa del Carmen 3 0 1 2 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Racing de Veracruz 4 15 5 +10 10
2 Pioneros de Cancún 4 12 5 +7 9
3 Irapuato 4 10 4 +6 12
4 Celaya 4 8 2 +6 10
5 Reboceros La Piedad 4 8 4 +4 9
6 Tigres de Alica 4 7 5 +2 7
7 Deportiva Venados 3 6 4 +2 5
8 Zacatepec 1948 5 6 5 +1 10
9 Montañeses 4 6 8 -2 4
10 Los Cabos United 4 5 5 0 6
11 Jaguares de Chiapas 3 3 5 -2 3
12 Lobos ULMX 3 3 5 -2 1
13 Chapulineros 5 3 10 -7 2
14 Tapachula 4 3 11 -8 3
15 Cordobés 4 2 7 -5 1
16 Tritons Vallarta 3 1 3 -2 1
17 H2O Purepechas 3 1 5 -4 1
18 Inter Playa del Carmen 3 0 6 -6 1
Primera Premier Mexico. Primera Premier Predictions