Statistics / Football / Mexico. Primera Premier / Zacatepec 1948 vs Lobos ULMX

Zacatepec 1948 vs Lobos ULMX Statistics & Analysis

Zacatepec 1948 Zacatepec 1948
Sep 05, 2026 - 20:30
2 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 77%
Lobos ULMX Lobos ULMX
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Zacatepec 1948 Zacatepec 1948 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 04:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6170088

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Zacatepec 1948 win · Zacatepec 1948 2–1 Lobos ULMX
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera Premier
  • Fixture: Zacatepec 1948 vs Lobos ULMX
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 20:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Zacatepec 1948 1.32 — Lobos ULMX 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera Premier Primera Premier — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Irapuato 4 4 0 0 12
2 Racing de Veracruz 4 3 1 0 10
3 Celaya 4 3 1 0 10
4 Zacatepec 1948 5 3 1 1 10
5 Pioneros de Cancún 4 3 0 1 9
6 Reboceros La Piedad 4 3 0 1 9
7 Tigres de Alica 4 2 1 1 7
8 Los Cabos United 4 2 0 2 6
9 Deportiva Venados 3 1 2 0 5
10 Montañeses 4 1 1 2 4
11 Jaguares de Chiapas 3 1 0 2 3
12 Tapachula 4 1 0 3 3
13 Chapulineros 5 0 2 3 2
14 Lobos ULMX 3 0 1 2 1
15 Tritons Vallarta 3 0 1 2 1
16 H2O Purepechas 3 0 1 2 1
17 Cordobés 4 0 1 3 1
18 Inter Playa del Carmen 3 0 1 2 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Racing de Veracruz 4 15 5 +10 10
2 Pioneros de Cancún 4 12 5 +7 9
3 Irapuato 4 10 4 +6 12
4 Celaya 4 8 2 +6 10
5 Reboceros La Piedad 4 8 4 +4 9
6 Tigres de Alica 4 7 5 +2 7
7 Deportiva Venados 3 6 4 +2 5
8 Zacatepec 1948 5 6 5 +1 10
9 Montañeses 4 6 8 -2 4
10 Los Cabos United 4 5 5 0 6
11 Jaguares de Chiapas 3 3 5 -2 3
12 Lobos ULMX 3 3 5 -2 1
13 Chapulineros 5 3 10 -7 2
14 Tapachula 4 3 11 -8 3
15 Cordobés 4 2 7 -5 1
16 Tritons Vallarta 3 1 3 -2 1
17 H2O Purepechas 3 1 5 -4 1
18 Inter Playa del Carmen 3 0 6 -6 1
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