Statistics / Football / Venezuela. Segunda División / Bolívar vs Monagas II

Bolívar vs Monagas II Statistics & Analysis

Bolívar Bolívar
Oct 04, 2026 - 19:00
2 1.27
1 1.33
xG Accuracy: 75%
Monagas II Monagas II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Monagas II Bolívar ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 02:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11687030

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Bolívar win · Bolívar 2–1 Monagas II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Segunda División
  • Fixture: Bolívar vs Monagas II
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Bolívar 1.27 — Monagas II 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 08, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Segunda División Segunda División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Deportivo Lara 29 19 6 4 63
2 Fundación Lara Deportiva 29 15 8 6 53
3 Yaracuyanos FC 29 13 7 9 46
4 Urena SC 29 12 10 7 46
5 Zamora FC B 29 11 7 11 40
6 Atletico el Vigia FC 30 11 7 12 40
7 Puerto Cabello II 30 9 7 14 34
8 Club Atletico Barinas 30 9 5 16 32
9 Real Frontera 29 3 3 23 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Fundación Lara Deportiva 29 52 32 +20 53
2 Deportivo Lara 29 51 22 +29 63
3 Club Atletico Barinas 30 50 61 -11 32
4 Zamora FC B 29 46 44 +2 40
5 Yaracuyanos FC 29 41 28 +13 46
6 Urena SC 29 41 34 +7 46
7 Atletico el Vigia FC 30 40 50 -10 40
8 Puerto Cabello II 30 38 44 -6 34
9 Real Frontera 29 22 66 -44 12