Atletico el Vigia FC vs Real Frontera Statistics & Analysis

Atletico el Vigia FC

Sep 20, 2026 - 19:30

3 1.28

1 1.32

xG Accuracy: 57%

Real Frontera

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Real Frontera Atletico el Vigia FC ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8696926

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Atletico el Vigia FC win · Atletico el Vigia FC 3–1 Real Frontera

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Segunda División
Fixture: Atletico el Vigia FC vs Real Frontera
Kickoff: 2026-09-20 19:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
xG (showing): Atletico el Vigia FC 1.28 — Real Frontera 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 40.1% · Probability edge: +11.7 pts · Est. EV: +18.1%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Deportivo Lara	27	18	6	3	60
2	Fundación Lara Deportiva	27	14	8	5	50
3	Urena SC	28	12	9	7	45
4	Yaracuyanos FC	27	11	7	9	40
5	Zamora FC B	27	11	7	9	40
6	Atletico el Vigia FC	28	9	7	12	34
7	Puerto Cabello II	28	8	7	13	31
8	Club Atletico Barinas	28	9	4	15	31
9	Real Frontera	28	3	3	22	12

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Club Atletico Barinas	28	49	59	-10	31
2	Fundación Lara Deportiva	27	48	27	+21	50
3	Deportivo Lara	27	46	20	+26	60
4	Zamora FC B	27	42	36	+6	40
5	Urena SC	28	41	34	+7	45
6	Puerto Cabello II	28	36	40	-4	31
7	Yaracuyanos FC	27	34	27	+7	40
8	Atletico el Vigia FC	28	32	45	-13	34
9	Real Frontera	28	22	62	-40	12