Deportivo Lara vs Fundación Lara Deportiva Statistics & Analysis

Deportivo Lara

Sep 02, 2026 - 23:00

2 1.29

1 1.31

xG Accuracy: 76%

Fundación Lara Deportiva

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Fundación Lara Deportiva Deportivo Lara ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 29, 2026 · 01:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5909723

Closing Odds 5.1

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Deportivo Lara win · Deportivo Lara 2–1 Fundación Lara Deportiva

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 6.12 percentage points on Draw (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Fundación Lara Deportiva (1X2) by about 18.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Deportivo Lara (1X2)	34.7	51.6	-16.9
Draw (1X2)	29.7	30.9	-1.3
Fundación Lara Deportiva (1X2)	35.6	17.4	+18.2
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	45.2	+3.0
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	54.8	-3.0

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 35.6% on Fundación Lara Deportiva (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 17.4%. The difference — about 18.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Deportivo Lara (1X2)	1.59	1.72	-4.1
Draw (1X2)	3.57	2.87	+6.1
Fundación Lara Deportiva (1X2)	4.56	5.1	-2.0
Over 2.5 goals	1.94	2.04	-2.7
Under 2.5 goals	1.78	1.68	+2.7

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Segunda División
Fixture: Deportivo Lara vs Fundación Lara Deportiva
Kickoff: 2026-09-02 23:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
xG (showing): Deportivo Lara 1.29 — Fundación Lara Deportiva 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.5% · Implied: 49.2% · Probability edge: +5.3 pts · Est. EV: +3.5%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Deportivo Lara	27	18	6	3	60
2	Fundación Lara Deportiva	27	14	8	5	50
3	Urena SC	28	12	9	7	45
4	Yaracuyanos FC	27	11	7	9	40
5	Zamora FC B	27	11	7	9	40
6	Atletico el Vigia FC	28	9	7	12	34
7	Puerto Cabello II	28	8	7	13	31
8	Club Atletico Barinas	28	9	4	15	31
9	Real Frontera	28	3	3	22	12

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Club Atletico Barinas	28	49	59	-10	31
2	Fundación Lara Deportiva	27	48	27	+21	50
3	Deportivo Lara	27	46	20	+26	60
4	Zamora FC B	27	42	36	+6	40
5	Urena SC	28	41	34	+7	45
6	Puerto Cabello II	28	36	40	-4	31
7	Yaracuyanos FC	27	34	27	+7	40
8	Atletico el Vigia FC	28	32	45	-13	34
9	Real Frontera	28	22	62	-40	12