Atletico el Vigia FC vs Club Atletico Barinas Statistics & Analysis

Atletico el Vigia FC

Sep 02, 2026 - 19:30

2 1.28

1 1.32

xG Accuracy: 75%

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Club Atletico Barinas

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Club Atletico Barinas Atletico el Vigia FC ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 29, 2026 · 01:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5908341

Closing Odds 1.85

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Atletico el Vigia FC win · Atletico el Vigia FC 2–1 Club Atletico Barinas

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 2.53 percentage points on Club Atletico Barinas (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Club Atletico Barinas (1X2) by about 8.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Atletico el Vigia FC (1X2)	34.2	47.2	-13.0
Draw (1X2)	29.7	24.7	+5.0
Club Atletico Barinas (1X2)	36.1	28.1	+8.0
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	55.3	-7.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	44.7	+7.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.1% on Club Atletico Barinas (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 28.1%. The difference — about 8.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365 → Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Atletico el Vigia FC (1X2)	1.83	1.85	-1.7
Draw (1X2)	3.5	3.54	-0.9
Club Atletico Barinas (1X2)	3.5	3.11	+2.5
Over 2.5 goals	1.75	1.63	+1.4
Under 2.5 goals	2.05	2.02	-1.4

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Segunda División
Fixture: Atletico el Vigia FC vs Club Atletico Barinas
Kickoff: 2026-09-02 19:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
xG (showing): Atletico el Vigia FC 1.28 — Club Atletico Barinas 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 45.9% · Probability edge: +5.9 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Deportivo Lara	27	18	6	3	60
2	Fundación Lara Deportiva	27	14	8	5	50
3	Urena SC	28	12	9	7	45
4	Yaracuyanos FC	27	11	7	9	40
5	Zamora FC B	27	11	7	9	40
6	Atletico el Vigia FC	28	9	7	12	34
7	Puerto Cabello II	28	8	7	13	31
8	Club Atletico Barinas	28	9	4	15	31
9	Real Frontera	28	3	3	22	12

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Club Atletico Barinas	28	49	59	-10	31
2	Fundación Lara Deportiva	27	48	27	+21	50
3	Deportivo Lara	27	46	20	+26	60
4	Zamora FC B	27	42	36	+6	40
5	Urena SC	28	41	34	+7	45
6	Puerto Cabello II	28	36	40	-4	31
7	Yaracuyanos FC	27	34	27	+7	40
8	Atletico el Vigia FC	28	32	45	-13	34
9	Real Frontera	28	22	62	-40	12