Fundación Lara Deportiva vs Yaracuyanos FC Statistics & Analysis

Fundación Lara Deportiva

Aug 30, 2026 - 20:30

0 1.26

0 1.34

xG Accuracy: 49%

Yaracuyanos FC

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Yaracuyanos FC Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 29, 2026 · 02:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5924590

Closing Odds 2.0

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Fundación Lara Deportiva 0–0 Yaracuyanos FC

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Yaracuyanos FC (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Yaracuyanos FC (1X2) by about 9.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Fundación Lara Deportiva (1X2)	33.4	44.8	-11.5
Draw (1X2)	29.6	27.2	+2.4
Yaracuyanos FC (1X2)	37.0	28.0	+9.0
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	51.3	-3.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	48.7	+3.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 37.0% on Yaracuyanos FC (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 28.0%. The difference — about 9.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Fundación Lara Deportiva (1X2)	2.0	2.0
Draw (1X2)	3.3	3.3
Yaracuyanos FC (1X2)	3.2	3.2
Over 2.5 goals	1.85	1.85
Under 2.5 goals	1.95	1.95

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Segunda División
Fixture: Fundación Lara Deportiva vs Yaracuyanos FC
Kickoff: 2026-08-30 20:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
xG (showing): Fundación Lara Deportiva 1.26 — Yaracuyanos FC 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.0%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Fundación Lara Deportiva & Yaracuyanos FC!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics

Segunda División — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Deportivo Lara	27	18	6	3	60
2	Fundación Lara Deportiva	27	14	8	5	50
3	Urena SC	28	12	9	7	45
4	Yaracuyanos FC	27	11	7	9	40
5	Zamora FC B	27	11	7	9	40
6	Atletico el Vigia FC	28	9	7	12	34
7	Puerto Cabello II	28	8	7	13	31
8	Club Atletico Barinas	28	9	4	15	31
9	Real Frontera	28	3	3	22	12

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Club Atletico Barinas	28	49	59	-10	31
2	Fundación Lara Deportiva	27	48	27	+21	50
3	Deportivo Lara	27	46	20	+26	60
4	Zamora FC B	27	42	36	+6	40
5	Urena SC	28	41	34	+7	45
6	Puerto Cabello II	28	36	40	-4	31
7	Yaracuyanos FC	27	34	27	+7	40
8	Atletico el Vigia FC	28	32	45	-13	34
9	Real Frontera	28	22	62	-40	12