Statistics / Football / Malaysia. FA Cup / Kuala Lumpur FA vs Perak

Kuala Lumpur FA vs Perak Statistics & Analysis

Kuala Lumpur FA Kuala Lumpur FA
Sep 09, 2026 - 12:15
0 1.29
0 1.31
xG Accuracy: 49%
Perak Perak
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Perak Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 03, 2026 · 07:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6747763

Closing Odds 1.51
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Kuala Lumpur FA 0–0 Perak
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 3.03 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Perak (1X2) by about 14.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Kuala Lumpur FA (1X2) 34.7 58.9 -24.1
Draw (1X2) 29.7 19.5 +10.2
Perak (1X2) 35.6 21.6 +14.0
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 53.4 -5.2
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 46.6 +5.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 35.6% on Perak (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 21.6%. The difference — about 14.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Kuala Lumpur FA (1X2) 1.49 1.51 -0.8
Draw (1X2) 4.72 4.56 +0.7
Perak (1X2) 4.14 4.11 +0.1
Over 2.5 goals 1.63 1.72 -3.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.11 1.97 +3.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: FA Cup
  • Fixture: Kuala Lumpur FA vs Perak
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-09 12:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Kuala Lumpur FA 1.29 — Perak 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 44.4% · Probability edge: +7.4 pts · Est. EV: +21.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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