Statistics / Football / Greece. Cup / AEK Athens FC vs Panserraikos

AEK Athens FC vs Panserraikos Statistics & Analysis

AEK Athens FC AEK Athens FC
Sep 17, 2026 - 14:45
8 1.42
1 1.18
xG Accuracy: 16%
Panserraikos Panserraikos
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (9 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 AEK Athens FC AEK Athens FC ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 8-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 10, 2026 · 08:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7886558

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result AEK Athens FC win · AEK Athens FC 8–1 Panserraikos
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Cup
  • Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs Panserraikos
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-16 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
  • xG (showing): AEK Athens FC 1.42 — Panserraikos 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI–Market Conflict - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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